The median game
One real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle.
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Q1 15:00
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Watch:
Kalshi board
Sim fair price next to the Kalshi price with the taker fee added.
Spread ladder
Total ladder
Ask the 10,000
Type a question. The answer is a count of the games where it happened.
Player lines
Median stat line from the 10,000 box scores. Tap a player for any line.
Pick a player to price any line.
How the games landed
Every final margin and total across the 10,000.
Final margin
Total points
Most common final scores
How often, per 1,000 games
What this is built on
This game's inputs
How the engine works
- Each game is played snap by snap, 10,000 times: play call, sack, scramble, target, catch, yards, penalties, fourth-down decisions, kicks, clock, timeouts, two-minute offense and overtime under the current rule.
- The two offenses are tuned until the 10,000 games agree with the sportsbook spread, total and moneyline shown above. The sim does not have its own opinion on who is better; it prices everything else consistently with those lines.
- Who throws, runs and catches comes from each player's 2026 usage: targets, carries, catch rate, yards per touch and touchdowns, pulled toward league norms when the sample is small. Players listed out are removed.
- Kalshi prices include the taker fee: ask + 0.07 × ask × (100 − ask) ÷ 100 cents. Edge is the sim percentage minus that. Within 1.5 cents either way is called fair.
- Known limits: no weather, no in-game injuries, and defense is only what the betting line implies. 10,000 games carry about ±1 point of sampling noise on a 50% answer.
Estimates from a simulation, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Kalshi is a regulated exchange for adults where it is offered; prices move, so check the live price before any trade.